By Leslie Small

Now that the Trump administration has abandoned its bid to overhaul the Medicare Part D drug rebate system, all eyes are on what Congress will do to address the ever-vexing problem of high drug prices.

While some ideas lawmakers are considering could be very problematic for PBMs, industry analysts are dubious about their prospects. Other less-drastic changes, though, could make it into law.

“The bottom line is [that] the most hurtful, the most damaging proposals, at least looking at it from a PBM perspective, we do not think that they will pass,” says Ji Liu, an analyst for the credit rating firm Standard & Poor’s (S&P). Liu and his colleagues recently released a report that analyzes how a handful of health care reform proposals might affect PBMs’ creditworthiness.

One proposal discussed in the report that has since become a more concrete possibility is a package of drug-pricing reforms from the Senate Finance Committee, which includes provisions that put inflation caps on Medicare Part D and Part B prices.

“Depending on how the maximum allowable inflation limit is set, we could see some modest pressure for PBMs,” which generally benefit from higher branded drug inflation because part of their revenue is tied to the list price, S&P’s report says.

In addition to the inflation caps and a slew of other provisions, the Senate Finance Committee’s drug-pricing bill would implement an out-of-pocket spending cap in Part D.

Alex Shekhdar, founder of Sycamore Creek Healthcare Advisors, says it makes sense for Congress to enact a policy that directly affects consumers’ out-of-pocket drug costs.

“Whatever policy comes to pass will focus on changing the price point that the consumer experiences,” he says, adding, “it’s a simpler lift that gets a lot of political gain.”